Well it’s been a while since I posted a blog and what better than to assess our current leader. Although I don’t want to get into making bold statements I think we can all agree he has had a significant impact on our performance. The problem though is trying to examine if has had a positive or, what I hope not, negative impact. Of course I believe he has had a fundamentally positive impact on Conservative rejuvenation. This piece is more a critique of an article in the spectator, which Fraser Nelson posits 4 reasons why the Cameron honeymoon is over!

It all starts with the 6th of December (a day after my birthday) when our leader shone though both winning support from MPs and party activists. The following month saw what political commentators called the Cameron ‘honeymoon’. So what does this entail? Well firstly, as mentioned in an earlier blog we gain 16,000 new members and he comes in the top 100 of ermm… sexiest men (but I want to move away from that debate)! Fraser doesn't think that there is a crisis but he argues that the Tories have progressed less than supporters might have hoped. Firstly he argues there has been “modest” progress in opinion polls. He suggests that the Cameron factor has hardly had any effect out of Westminster. This may be the case with opinion polls at the moment shifting between Cons and Lab – with no one really knowing how to assess them. Leading in this debate is Sir Bob Worcester of MORI who suggests that there are too many “don’t knows” and it is premature to judge Cameron’s leadership. Although the opinion polls may be modest we have to take this in perspective, the General election was only in May last year and to suggest that the opposition could overturn what was some times a 7 point leader to labour was difficult in itself. To actually beat Labour (albeit modestly) demonstrates the true impact Cameron has had on our party.

Secondly, he suggests the major donors have “whispered” dissatisfaction. The issue here is really about Cameron’s slogan “Win for Britain, Change to win.” The problem with many of our right of centre members is that they want one thing but when it happens they get annoyed. Cameron made it very clear during his leadership election that if the Conservatives wanted to win they would have to change, and I’m afraid Thatchrites that means change a lot! The policies implemented during the Thatcher reign are no longer applicable to the modern 21st century Britain. I think that what Cameron is putting on the negotiating table is sensible and plausible for the Party image to change. If we are to be re-elected we need to show that we really are different from the past, and I think with no members on the Shadow Cabinet who were part of the Thatcher era this is a watershed moment in Conservative history (I thought I wasn’t going to make bold statements!)

Thirdly, he notes that the parties campaign machine is starting to look “inferior” (that’s right) to the Liberal Democrats!! I suppose he’s talking on the backdrop of the recent by-election victory in Scotland. This kind of statement suggests to me that because of one out of over six hundred and fifty seats (and not to mention in Scotland) our performance in the campaign field is poor. Well let’s re-examine the facts before the opinions are expressed, something which I’ve learnt at University. Historically, we have had little or no impact in Scotland and it seems that whatever we do both at the Westminster level and local level we can’t seem to have an influential impact. I personally put blame not on Cameron (which Fraser does) but rather the general trend in Conservative policy in Scotland. I think we do need to do more, just as the Welsh are doing, to try and make what many once (but never again) called ‘a Tory free Wales!’

The last claim he makes is about Right wing anxiety, which very much linked to the second point. Again, I can only stress the importance of change in the party. As a young conservative, someone who hasn’t really witnessed the effects first hand of Thatcher this may affect my judgement but I really do believe that although she will be a lasting legacy in the history of the party, we really do have to move on!! The problems Britain faced in the 1980’s are not the problems that face Britain today. There are more long term issues (such as environment and poverty) that are more pressing to British concerns. Yes we should always look to the Thatcher years as a moment that turned Britain from facing complete depression to a nation that could really compete on the international market. But, even though the economy is of course important, other issues supersede it.

The Cameron factor since December has really started to turn a chapter in the path to power since 1997. Those who argue the Cameron factor has failed are wrong on three accounts. Firstly, it’s too early to make judgments. Secondly, we have really yet to get to the debate about where we stand on certain issues like Europe, which I’m worried will haunt us for the near future. Finally, I think that it is very possible that we may lose the next election; Conservatives have to get out of the attitude of short term thinking. Why not look at the long term i.e. the election after next. If we do lose, which I think will be a close election, Cameron must stay on and we must stay united if we really do mean we have changed!

So what are your thoughts? I know a lot of you are right and left wing of the party? Put your arguments forward, maybe we can really get a debate going!