My first thoughts when referred to this site were:

"WTF... but, why?"

I say first, but that's misleading, since my thoughts haven't progressed. I am at a complete loss for words in trying to explain why anyone would think launching such a campaign and website mocking people for spending money would be more important than, say, having a policy on anything. Considering the overwhelming experience most of the "tossers" at CCHQ have ever likely had with money is how to avoid drowning in it, it seems farcical and insulting that they should try and tell people who are struggling how to manage their finances.

Most families are opting for credit for ordinary things - replacing broken washing machines, decorating the spare room for new arrivals, taking a break from the rat race to visit distant family - and this "bling bling" stereotype is nonsense. A lot of people are having to spend on credit rathero because for nearly half the time they work 9-5, they are working for Gordon Brown. Personal taxation levels are not simply undesirable, they are obscene, in any possible definition of that word. If the Tories really wanted a wider plan to cut down on credit spending, they would do better than to go on some spotty teenage rant on the evils of consumer choice. They should offer a plan which would allow people to afford what they are buying, and not to get them to cut back on buying. They would offer an extensive programme of cuts in taxation and regulation to help boost the economy.

They appear like doing no such thing. They are spluttering like lunatics that tax cuts damage economic stability and that the "proceeds of the growth" should be shared between tax cuts and extra socialism. Instead of making a stand for capitalism and freedom, they are greatly over-hyping the threat of global warming to excuse more taxes on cars, or flying, and other politically unacceptable pleasures. In all possible areas, economic or social, INGSOC lives on, and its champions make claims of representing Sedgefield, North East Fife, and Witney. There is definitely something which needs "sorting out," indeed.

On Saturday 9th December 2006, Assembly Candidate and former Aberystwyth Conservative Future Chair Emma Greenow has organised a South Wales West Conservative Future Action Day to increase membership.

This will take place between 1 and 3pm in Bridgend.

"I feel it is essential for the party as a whole that our Conservative Future membership is boosted in South Wales and by organising a series of these Action Days I hope we can achieve this. I therefore ask whether you could possibly spare some time on this day to help in this effort.

Should you be able to help please email me and I will give further details on meeting place etc at emmagreenow@hotmail.co.uk"

Aberystwyth CF members can contact me at rpr4@aber.ac.uk - the more support the better. Thanks Paul

With the NHS in financal meltdown how come "Tony" and "Gord" are able to devote more of our money to various international countries in aid. I have no objection to us giving aid to others but I find it hard to see how they can justify giving money to others when they're leaving things such a mess at home!

Aid is important but so are things in Britain, where are the priorities ?

In the past week the Aber CF team has been working hard to arrange a schedule of fun and political events for our members and they are as follows -


Tuesday 21st November - Meeting with Ceredigion candidate Trefor Jones, Scholars 7pm

Thursday 30th November - Aber CF Christmas Meal - La Figaro - 7.30pm with Guest Speaker Nick Bourne Leader of the Conservative Group in the Assembly and Welsh Party Chairman Lyndon Jones

Tuesday 5th December - Aber CF " Christmas Fun and Chocolate Fountain" fundraising party. venue tbc.

Visit to Welsh Assembly in January, date to be confirmed.

Friday 9th February - Guest Speaker David Jones MP (Shadow Minister for Wales, deputy to Cheryl Gillan)

Friday 23rd February - CF Wales Annual Dinner with Justine Greening MP

2nd- 4th March - Welsh Party Conference Trip

Thursday 8th March - Guest Speaker Stephen Crabb MP


Hope to see you all in attendance!

The Liberal Democrats are pushing their idea of a 'Freedom Bill', a great repeal act removing some of Tony Blair's more intolerable piss stains on British liberty - he calls them "laws" - from the statute book. The top ten to be repealed are:

- Restriction of protest rights at Parliament square
- Internal Passport ("ID Cards")
- Ease of extradiction rights to the USA
- Conditions on protest outside public assemblies
- Criminalising Trespass
- Control Orders
- DNA Retention
- 'Public interest' defence for whistleblowing
- Ending the right to silence in court
- Use of hearsay evidence in court

I think this is a great idea, and one which can get bi-partisan support for all lovers of liberty

Well, the democrats have won Montana but Virginia is still going on, despite this the Democrat Webb says he has won. To be honest it looks like that! So in the space of one nite the nature of the political landscape in America has changed..............

On a side note, it was a good election to watch tho I'm pretty knackered now, luckily it's a couple of months before the next election to watch, thats the National Assembly elections here in Wales. At these elections we all hope the Conservatives can put in a really good showing.

It ius unclear what exactly is going on in Montana and Virginia, though it seems at least provisionally the Democrats won both. This will, if im not mistaken, leave the Senate with a 49 - 49 tie (2 independents). Im not sure what that will mean for appointing chairs and so forth (it seems likely that president of the senate - Dick Cheney - will get to choose), but in everyday workings this will allow the Democrat's to pursue their agenda, since both independents are left of centre (Bernie Sanders of Vermont is in fact positively socialist)

To recap: The Democrats have also won the House. CNN now projects a 22 seat majority. It seems many Republican's worst nightmare has happened: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, representative of that well known bastion of social conservatism and 'moral values'... San Francisco.

Later on, when the dust has settled, I will clarify loose ends, and then try to provide some analysis of what this result means for America - and in terms of foreign policy and the War in Iraq - the world

Republican Jim Talent concedes in Missouri Senate contest. Montana and Virginia are both leaning Democrat.

Missouri is now being declared for the Democrats (Senate).

Webb also looks good for Virginia, and seems a recount might not be necessary after all

The three previously mentioned Senate races still cannot be safely called, though Montana looks good for the Democrats. The Virginia polls have, as predicted, gone to a recount.

CNN is now predicting an 18 seat gain for the Democrats. For the first time since the "Republican Revolution" of 1994, the Democrats have taken control of the House

As time drags on Missouri is swinging wildly and looks likely to be down to one precinct! Virginia looks to have gone Democrat but it's so close that you can't be sure. As for Montana, well it's early to tell but it looks good for the Democrats..........

The main three remaining Senate seats: Virginia, Montana, Missouri. The Democrats must win all 3 to take control

Democrats are also predicted to win a majority of the governorships.

CNN:
"Democrats need to make a net pickup of four governorships in 36 races to get to the magic number of 26 -- and with polls closed in more than half of the states, CNN had projected Democratic gains in five of the state posts. Heading into the balloting, five GOP-held seats were considered likely to switch, and races for six others were down to the wire."

The Virginia Senate race remains incredibly close; it is suggested now there are now only 5 thousand votes in it!

A few Senate races remain in the balance - Virginia in particular, where a recount looks likely

As for the House, bar some bizarre loses late in the night, the Republicans have lost control. The Democrats have gained at least 15 seats, with the MSM now predicting from 20-24

Enjoy a random picture of joy from CNN:

The Democrats look set to take the House - in Pennslyvania alone there are 5 seats which look to change hands

Ned Lamont conceeds (Joe Lieberman, as an Independent, retains his seat)

Rick Santorum conceeds

House: Dems 4+
Senate: Dems 3+ , Ind 1+
Governors: 4+

Rhode Island: "Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse will win the Rhode Island Senate race, defeating Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee, CNN projects"

Nothing clear on the House yet, though CNN projects that "GOP Rep. John Hostettler, will lose his seat in Indiana's 8th District to Democrat Brad Ellsworth".

Reminder that the Democrats need to gain 6 to win the Senate. So far they look set to win in Ohio ( Sherrod Brown) and Pennslyvania (Bob Casey)... Virginia is still on a sneeze

EDIT: Gain for Independents? Joe Lieberman looks to be up in Connecticut (though with only 2% reporting)

Back to the Virginina Senate, it still seems awfully close, though FOX is now showing George Allen at 50% to Webb's 49%. Clearly this is a hot race and no one will be betting against a lawyer frenzy after the result.

Pennslyvania: Also close, though it is looking good for Bob Casey to beat Rick Santorum. Current precincts are reporting 61% to 39%, though I think when the rural areas start to get counted the result will be a lot tighter.

Florida: Bill Nelson (59%) is up on Katherine Harris (40%) with 32% of precincts.

Results on VA (precincts: 481 of 2443 (19.69%) )

J H Webb Jr Democratic 193,123 49.49%
G F Allen Republican 192,485 49.33%

Can someone say "close call" !

No major results yet, though I heard on radio 4 that an "american television network" (who?) is predicting the Virginian Senate race for James Webb against George Allen (and the Ohio Governorship for the Democrats).

Reminder: the Democrats need to gain 15 seats in the House to take control. I am predicting 20 seats. (neck on the line!). Finally I've decided the Democrats will win Virginia (along with poll predictions coming out right now) and Pennslyvania

The race in Penn State will undoubtately be the one to have the nation's attention come November 7th. This will be primarily because of the nature of the Republican incumbant, Junior Senator Rick Santorum, and of the extremely close race that the polls are predicting



The fate of Rick Santorum is important not just because of his senior party position in the Senate (chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, number 3 behind Leader and Majority Whip) and also not just for his celebrity and controversial nature. The greater underlying issue is in my mind the extent to which Santorum exemplifies "Bushism", an as such, in his defeat or re-election we can draw wider conclusions about the President, the direction of the nation since 2000, and the makeup of the Republican Party itself.

Santorum, like Bush, is known for his arch social conservatism, his ardent support for the War in Iraq and the response of the federal government to terrorism, and his somewhat slack and uncommitted approach to the limited govt - or libertarian - cause. (To get an idea of his social conservatism: ee called the Defence of Marriage Amendment - marriage is between one man and one woman - the "ultimate national security", wrote in the New York Times that Intelligent Design is a "legitimate scientific theory", and has opposed the idea that the Constitution contains a 'right to privacy', even to the extent that homosexual acts in private are not protected)

The race becomes even more interesting when one learns that Bob Casey, Santorum's Democratic challenger, is also Pro-Life. The subsequent worry is that the great Pro-Life juggernaut will concentrate its energies elsewhere, and the mass of support Santorum may have expected otherwise will be split between him and his challenger. However, as National Review has pointed out, Santorum's Pro-Life record is more solid than Casey's)

I would contend that, as it stands most las a referendum on the compassionate conservatism than any other race movement, this is the race to watch

Midterm elections, like the election coming up in five days, often shed light on the probable outcome of the Presidential elections approaching in 2008. Some of the key states that can make or break a continued Republican presence in the White House include Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Florida today, Ohio tomorrow, and Pennsylvania Sunday.

Florida
Republican Katherine Harris is running against Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson. Latest polling shows Nelson taking lead with 59% support and Harris falling behind with 33%. Harris had a bad reputation coming out of the 2000 election and it has followed her to her Senate bid in 2006. Am I “worried” you asked, not at all. Florida has a strong conservative population. The current race for state governor in Florida shows the Republican candidate in the lead, and it looks like voters are leaning towards the Republican candidates for state legislatures. What does all this indicate? Well, depending on who runs for President in 2008, Florida is likely to remain true to its solid conservative base that will show itself when it goes to the polls on nearly all of Florida’s elections.

Needless to say, Democrats are going to spend weeks-on-end spinning around in fields of daisies with grins from ear-to-ear when a Democratic senator walks into Washington representing a contested state. We’ll let them, but when 2008 rolls in, those frowns will be turning upside-down.

Now, for all you visual learners, I’m going to provide some electorate maps, but I’m going to have to explain a few things first. Here in the states, we’ve assigned the color red with us Republicans (the conservatives) and blue with the Democrats (the liberals). From what I hear, the UK has blue for the conservatives, and red for the socialist commies. I don’t want anyone to think the U.S. is run by a bunch of socialists. Also of note “GOP” stands for Grand Old Party, which is a nickname for the Republican Party. Here is the voter turnout in Florida in the 2004 Senatorial race (source: CNN.com):

Following David Cameron speaking at The Youth Justice Convention yesterday I find it interesting how Tony Blair chooses to do this by "videolink" rather than in person. Maybe its an indication of what his priorities are - probably not coming to Wales? Im sure he would get a warm welcome off some people within his welsh party, however maybe not from the First Minister who thinks that Blair is past it but Rhodri himself isnt past his sell by date or the Welsh MP's who felt he should step down!

Any comments?

Yesterday the Welsh Conservative Party met David Cameron for a drinks reception to provide a climax to his day in Cardiff.

At the event David Cameron expressed his thanks to everyone for attending especially the large Conservative Future presence. After the speech he spoke to CF members from across Wales and was very pleased when Welsh Party Chairman Lyndon Jones told the crowd that Aberystwyth CF managed to gain 70 members and become the largest branch in Wales!

So as Cameron rallied the Welsh Party yesterday, I rally you - to continue to be active, become more involved in the party and thank you for your support. Aber CF if widely recognised across Wales so lets work together to help deliver Conservative success in the Assembly elections in May!!

Alright, now into the nitty-gritty. Before we zoom into the political map of the United States, let’s just chill out here for a second. Republicans recently came into a majority position after forty years of Democrat superiority. Talk to someone like Rush Limbaugh and he will tell you that the Republicans are going to win across the board because they stand tall against the rest in the battlefield of ideas. Talk to a more centrist personality like Bill O’Reilly, and he will tell you the Republicans are going to lose seats across the board, fail to control the House but maintain the Senate. His reasons, to the best of my knowledge, are backed by the notion that Americans are fed-up with the war in Iraq.

Republicans have been beaten up the past 6 years. The Republican-controlled congress hasn’t lived up to the Republican platform itself, along with a Republican President whose spending and border policy has failed to rally the conservative base.

Campaigns are political phenomena’s that can create an artificial tide in public opinion: high at one point, low at another, depending on who says what when. Most of the current Republicans up for reelection are the same Republicans that spent the nation into a deficit, and attempted to pass bills such as the anti-flag burning bill. From what I hear, the UK has the same lunacy. Equally as important are the opponents of the Republicans. Democrats are not provided a decent reason as to why voters should vote for them. The campaign that started in 2000 has been strictly a negative one. A new liberal movement has grown out of the carcass that is the Democratic Party, and it has formed groups like MoveOn.org, Code Pink, People for the American Way, & ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism). These groups have rallied massive demonstrations, promoted a socialist cause, and have wedged themselves so far deep into the Democratic Party that Democratic leaders are forced to adhere to their every demand.

To maintain their majority, Republicans need to prove the Democrats are not fit to run this country at such a pivotal time. Yes, the current Republican leadership spends too much, and yes they support bad policies on occasion, but the alternative is much worse, and that’s exactly what needs to be announced.

On a more comforting side, as some of the older Republicans retire, new ones who promise reform within the party are likely to take their place. This fresh blood is a breath of fresh air to the base and we can only hope those promises follow them to the capital. In Tennessee, Bob Corker, is running to take the place of Majority Leader Bill Frist. Corker looks to have a strong lead in the polls (52% to 44%) and will likely get elected. I’ve got a friend of mine working on his campaign, and I’m assured he’s the right man for the job; a true conservative is what we need in Washington.

Stay tuned,
Tetracide

Aber CF are set to "cover" the upcoming US elections. We will firstly feature brief explanations of the US system and how it works for those who arent familar (my friend Tetracide has kindly agreed to do that for us) and then feature the specific 'key' races across the nation in turn. On election night I will provide round-the-clock updates of important goings on, and by virtue of my doing so at an obscure time the blog will feature pretty much the first opinionated round-up of the results in the nation

Alternatively you could just use CNN... but why would you want to do that?

Greetings my ideological brothers and sisters from across the great pond. Tetracide here, doing the world a favor and presenting the mechanics and break down of the upcoming American midterm elections. I was invited to break down the November 7th elections here in the states, so I thought I’d first make a post talking about the election and reelection processes. For those who already know what the difference between a primary election and an election, or “red” and “blue” in American political culture, you may want to skip this post as I catch up those who may not be up to speed.

Basic Election Info
Only two of America’s three branches of government are elected into office by a vote of the people. Those branches include the legislature (Congress) and the executive (the Presidency). The President has four year terms ending on an even year. Example: George W. Bush was first elected in 2000, then reelected in 2004. The next Presidential race will be in 2008. Congress gets a little more complicated. In the House of Representatives, member’s have two year terms ending on even years. Example: Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi ran a campaign in 2000, 2002, 2004, and has run one this year as well. In the Senate, for reasons I won’t get into depth with, 1/3 of all 100 senators are up for reelection on even years. Example: Senator Dianne Feinstein was up for reelection this year. In 2008, another 1/3 of the Senate will be up for reelection, and the remaining 1/3 of senators like Barack Obama who were elected in 2004 will be up for reelection in 2010.

Primary Elections
Now that we understand when people are elected, allow me explain the “how.” In any partisan election here in the states, there are what we call primary elections. As a continuing example, I’m going to use the 2004 Presidential campaign. Prior to the 2004 November Presidential election, the Democrats needed to pick a candidate to support. All the Democrats that want to run for President run a primary campaign to win the votes of delegates in each of the 50 states.

Without totally boiling your brain with the details, just know that there were about 4,300 Democratic delegates, and each candidate campaigned in each state, attempting to win the vote of those delegates. Then, the people vote for the delegates who share their choice for the Presidential candidate. Example: in the 2004 primary, the people in California had four options: John Jerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean, or Dennis Kucinich. A majority of the people voted for the 315 delegates that had sided with John Kerry, thus, Senator Kerry “carried” California. Kerry carried all but three states (North & South Carolina, and Oklahoma). John Kerry won the Democratic Primary and ran for President officially endorsed by the Democratic National Convention.

Primaries also exist in senatorial races. The most popular Democratic Primary was the race between radical liberal Ned Lamont versus centrist Joe Lieberman. Lieberman attempted to run as a Democrat, only his support for the Iraq war has left him without much of a Democratic base. He lost the Democratic primary in Connecticut, then ran as an Independent and is now soaring in the polls. The 2006 party primaries are over, but the real elections fun starts and ends on November 7th.

I’ll park it here. Either later today, or tomorrow, I will be indulging into the real political atmosphere here in the States and give all of you the breakdown of where the elections stand, if Conservatism is going to remain in the majority, or if liberalism will conquer.

Thanks for reading,
Tetracide

Links of Interest
The 2004 Democratic Primary Results (CNN.com)
The Delegate Selection Process (CNN.com)