Friday, September 22, 2006
Pinky and the Brain Part III
Ok the non prediction of the presentation by Dr Richard Wyn JOnes (Pinky) and Dr Scully (brain) was a bad but not dreadful night for Labour this May with 25 seats, Plaid at 13, Tories at 13, Independents at 2 and the Lib DEms with the rest.
Which in my view is based on a premise of a low turnout rather than Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems or Plaid or the Tories (depending on the seat). For Labour to think that Middle Britain voters are just in England is a massive mistake.
Further Peoples Voice may stand in more Valleys seats (resources permitting), might they do a deal with Plaid and co-ordinate where they are standing, targetting to deliver a 1999 style defeat where lets face it we don't stand a cat in hells chance
Also there is the factor that UKIP may stand in and Target South Wales East and Mid and West Wales given the desire to get abolitionist votes (which may or may not include BNP sympathisers in Mid Wales who may vote tactically).
Plus there is the English vote in Monmothshire which if the English Democrats candidate for a referenda as to its status gets off the ground, may eat into David Davies majority, esp as he is a two jobs kind of guy at the moment which the other parties may exploit. Might UKIP and the Eng Dem candidate do a deal there?
Then there is the rule that assembly members can't stand on the list and a constituency. It means that a local oligarch (or one who the local oligarchs who use the coal fortunes to manipulate elections, or the UofWales with its reserve fundsa nd grants from the monarchy) can't pick up their votes in a second or third place in their back yard so to speak, and pool it with their mates in other parts of the region to get elected.What I'll christen the Francis effect. The removal of this means that constituency activists and party machines come back into play and that can favour the Labour Party if they revert to their usual tactics for running elections . This shows once again Peter Hain fixing the rules as part of the 2006 act in Labours favour to offer himself as the best Deputy to Gordon Brown
In this scenario is it no wonder that the IWP is seeking to protect its research grants, lol. Or is this part of the plan to put Pinky up as VC at a future date?
Which in my view is based on a premise of a low turnout rather than Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems or Plaid or the Tories (depending on the seat). For Labour to think that Middle Britain voters are just in England is a massive mistake.
Further Peoples Voice may stand in more Valleys seats (resources permitting), might they do a deal with Plaid and co-ordinate where they are standing, targetting to deliver a 1999 style defeat where lets face it we don't stand a cat in hells chance
Also there is the factor that UKIP may stand in and Target South Wales East and Mid and West Wales given the desire to get abolitionist votes (which may or may not include BNP sympathisers in Mid Wales who may vote tactically).
Plus there is the English vote in Monmothshire which if the English Democrats candidate for a referenda as to its status gets off the ground, may eat into David Davies majority, esp as he is a two jobs kind of guy at the moment which the other parties may exploit. Might UKIP and the Eng Dem candidate do a deal there?
Then there is the rule that assembly members can't stand on the list and a constituency. It means that a local oligarch (or one who the local oligarchs who use the coal fortunes to manipulate elections, or the UofWales with its reserve fundsa nd grants from the monarchy) can't pick up their votes in a second or third place in their back yard so to speak, and pool it with their mates in other parts of the region to get elected.What I'll christen the Francis effect. The removal of this means that constituency activists and party machines come back into play and that can favour the Labour Party if they revert to their usual tactics for running elections . This shows once again Peter Hain fixing the rules as part of the 2006 act in Labours favour to offer himself as the best Deputy to Gordon Brown
In this scenario is it no wonder that the IWP is seeking to protect its research grants, lol. Or is this part of the plan to put Pinky up as VC at a future date?
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Pinky and the Brain part II
ctd...
In short Labour is donald ducking with our constitution to get the maximum number of Welsh MPs to prop it up during its fourth term in the event of a hung Parliament, rather than reducing the numbers and resolving the West LothianQuestion amicably for England and delivering a constitution fit for the 21st century. Does the peer smell the expenses of the quango lords that Labour is coming up with and fixing at present, or is this a coded revelation from a higher power such as the Privy Council or one of the Palaces?
In short Wales under Labour is just Goirdon Borwns fiefdom, not a nation to be treated equally with his own.
Its time for the Conservatives to call for the repeal of the Govt of Wales Acts and replace them with a Welsh version of teh Govt of Scotland Act so that the powers are equal with Scotland and a Taff /gog on this island isn't seconjd class to a Jock or in a constitutional vacumn as the current and soon to be enacted legislation would create.
The learned Lord said a spat between Wales and England would be a way of crystallising the issue. What tosh! As an Englishman and member of London Welsh and UMCA whose neighbours and schoolfriends include Welsh people, this problem could be avoided if the current government could behave with some constitutional integrity rather than hypocritical bullshit on the media that the act is a great leap forward. the learned Lord is however right that it is a stage towards the Welsh Parliament.
I fear Labours inepitude and self seeking internal electioneering of Peter Hain abusing his position of Secretary of state for partisan gains will give the separatists the momentum they need to regain some of their support. It is up to the Conservatives and the Lib Dems to liase and target resources with Plaid to get out Labour and in places agree the common programme and constitutional Convention for Wales necessary to allow for a proper second referenda with all of the options laid out once and for all time:
abolition (in case UKIP get a list seat in Mid Wales, a varaible that Pinky and the Brain didn't mention in their presentation)
status quo 2006 act (with all its muck ups to the constitutional order and clumsiness on federal relations)
Parity with Scotland
Independence
Part III will follow on the election presentation
In short Labour is donald ducking with our constitution to get the maximum number of Welsh MPs to prop it up during its fourth term in the event of a hung Parliament, rather than reducing the numbers and resolving the West LothianQuestion amicably for England and delivering a constitution fit for the 21st century. Does the peer smell the expenses of the quango lords that Labour is coming up with and fixing at present, or is this a coded revelation from a higher power such as the Privy Council or one of the Palaces?
In short Wales under Labour is just Goirdon Borwns fiefdom, not a nation to be treated equally with his own.
Its time for the Conservatives to call for the repeal of the Govt of Wales Acts and replace them with a Welsh version of teh Govt of Scotland Act so that the powers are equal with Scotland and a Taff /gog on this island isn't seconjd class to a Jock or in a constitutional vacumn as the current and soon to be enacted legislation would create.
The learned Lord said a spat between Wales and England would be a way of crystallising the issue. What tosh! As an Englishman and member of London Welsh and UMCA whose neighbours and schoolfriends include Welsh people, this problem could be avoided if the current government could behave with some constitutional integrity rather than hypocritical bullshit on the media that the act is a great leap forward. the learned Lord is however right that it is a stage towards the Welsh Parliament.
I fear Labours inepitude and self seeking internal electioneering of Peter Hain abusing his position of Secretary of state for partisan gains will give the separatists the momentum they need to regain some of their support. It is up to the Conservatives and the Lib Dems to liase and target resources with Plaid to get out Labour and in places agree the common programme and constitutional Convention for Wales necessary to allow for a proper second referenda with all of the options laid out once and for all time:
abolition (in case UKIP get a list seat in Mid Wales, a varaible that Pinky and the Brain didn't mention in their presentation)
status quo 2006 act (with all its muck ups to the constitutional order and clumsiness on federal relations)
Parity with Scotland
Independence
Part III will follow on the election presentation
Pinky and the Brain are getting it wrong
Ok I'm sorry to say that I've had it with academic conferences (speaking as an accredited journalist).
Let me explain:
I missed the fun stuff (hehe, lol) of Rhodri Morgans clapped out speech Wales can be a can do nation. If thats the case why waste the money on support groups when West Wales is crying out for better Rail links on the tin can line (Aber - Shrewsbury, and relaying the line Carmarthen to Lampeter, the only one of Wales uni towns not to have a link and essential for regeneration of Southern Ceredigion. To paraphrase a polecat Wales is a bit too big for people to go about on their bicycles, lol.
Further when will there be a proper road link North of Camarthen and Llanelli to Machynlleth and Llandudno?, to open up mid wales to tourism, leisure and outdoor pursuits (as discuss ed on BBC Wales website after theGeneral Election)
If Wales is a can do nation, guve the Engineering dept at Swansea a real challenge to design said links and usher in an era for Brunel wannabes.
Anyhow I digress.
Lord Ivor Richards speech was informed and illuminating as to the nature of devolution and the Gvernment of Wales Act 2006. However informed comment on a piece of horseshit is still horseshit.
Let me explain.
The act is based on the premise of trying to make Orders in Council (ministerial diktats on procedural matters and interpretations of statutes at Westminster) democratically accountable and a vehicle for transfer of substantive powers in primary law making fields and possibly the award of tax raising powers (as you can't scrounge of England and the EU indefinitely). These orders are laid by the secretary of state after the 2/3 majority of Welsh Assembly members if he agrees with it (and if he doesn't then theres a mechanism for him to explain why) then the unammendable text goes before bothe houses of Parliament.
So Gordon Brown and Peter Hainjs cronies on the Green benches can appear to do and say something when in fact they are doing sweet FA.
Further this prejudges second stage Lord s reform. It removes the chances of Senate of teh Regions under Labour that would with STV have delivered real choice for the p[eople of Wales.
In Short Labour is donald ducking with our constitution for keeping the maximum number of We
Let me explain:
I missed the fun stuff (hehe, lol) of Rhodri Morgans clapped out speech Wales can be a can do nation. If thats the case why waste the money on support groups when West Wales is crying out for better Rail links on the tin can line (Aber - Shrewsbury, and relaying the line Carmarthen to Lampeter, the only one of Wales uni towns not to have a link and essential for regeneration of Southern Ceredigion. To paraphrase a polecat Wales is a bit too big for people to go about on their bicycles, lol.
Further when will there be a proper road link North of Camarthen and Llanelli to Machynlleth and Llandudno?, to open up mid wales to tourism, leisure and outdoor pursuits (as discuss ed on BBC Wales website after theGeneral Election)
If Wales is a can do nation, guve the Engineering dept at Swansea a real challenge to design said links and usher in an era for Brunel wannabes.
Anyhow I digress.
Lord Ivor Richards speech was informed and illuminating as to the nature of devolution and the Gvernment of Wales Act 2006. However informed comment on a piece of horseshit is still horseshit.
Let me explain.
The act is based on the premise of trying to make Orders in Council (ministerial diktats on procedural matters and interpretations of statutes at Westminster) democratically accountable and a vehicle for transfer of substantive powers in primary law making fields and possibly the award of tax raising powers (as you can't scrounge of England and the EU indefinitely). These orders are laid by the secretary of state after the 2/3 majority of Welsh Assembly members if he agrees with it (and if he doesn't then theres a mechanism for him to explain why) then the unammendable text goes before bothe houses of Parliament.
So Gordon Brown and Peter Hainjs cronies on the Green benches can appear to do and say something when in fact they are doing sweet FA.
Further this prejudges second stage Lord s reform. It removes the chances of Senate of teh Regions under Labour that would with STV have delivered real choice for the p[eople of Wales.
In Short Labour is donald ducking with our constitution for keeping the maximum number of We
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Am engaged
Dear all,
Just thought I'd let you know I met someone over the summer and am now engaged.
James
Just thought I'd let you know I met someone over the summer and am now engaged.
James
I have a quick question,
Were we as a country on D notice this August?
Having discussed the matter with Londoners and Welshmen (different broadcast areas) the same editorial news items were up and running in both down to the sentences.
The only explanation for that is emergency powers and D notice.
Given the terrorist plot (alleged) I can understand it but to me this strikes me of an orwellian usage of the press by the left given the length of it and co-ordination across the globe.
Then again this August was a bad month to bring down the monarchy. Who did order the death of Princess Diana? Lord Stevens I await the answer with interest.
Were we as a country on D notice this August?
Having discussed the matter with Londoners and Welshmen (different broadcast areas) the same editorial news items were up and running in both down to the sentences.
The only explanation for that is emergency powers and D notice.
Given the terrorist plot (alleged) I can understand it but to me this strikes me of an orwellian usage of the press by the left given the length of it and co-ordination across the globe.
Then again this August was a bad month to bring down the monarchy. Who did order the death of Princess Diana? Lord Stevens I await the answer with interest.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
CF - new exec new dawn?
... and so a month of tireless campaigning came to an end with Mark Clarke elected Chairman for Conservative Future and almost an entirely new National Management Executive. Aberystwyth Conservative Future congratulates all those elected to serve CF for the forthcoming year.
In hindsight you may view it as I do that the results providing us with so many fresh faces were hardly suprising - apart from a shock that a very hard working and credible candidate who served last year, Jonathon Ash-Edwards failed to secure enough votes to serve us again. In recent years it has been obvious that CF nationally has failed to capitalise on the potential that exists. Turnout was about double compared to last year (still only a mere 700) and the count was closer than expected.
As North Wales Area Chairman and Aberystwyth Branch Chairman for CF I backed Mark Clarke because he stood out from the crowd, he was willing to take an interest in Wales, Welsh politics and the differences we have with our English counterparts. Differences in membership, resources, finance and an established area structure. He could see there was a point in doing more than the odd journey up the M4 corridor and meeting face to face rather than by messenger or video-conferencing. I feel it is that people dont vote in CF elections because they don't know who the candidates are and they barely influence the average member . Have branches become to localised and isolated? Branches should be more open. Are they failing to realise what influence their members can make nationally?
Conservative Future can only benefit from Mark Clarke's approach, setting up branches in target seats is a key for the assembly and parliamentary elections. Myself and other area chairmen backed Mark as we feel that the party as a whole should benefit from CF and not the individual.
In the coming months we must unite rather than divide to ensure that suitable candidates can fill the vacant area chair positions across the country so that we can become a coherent movement we can be proud of. Competence and hard work is essential over the coming year and I believe under the new leadership and our new image we can succeed to assembly success in May.
In hindsight you may view it as I do that the results providing us with so many fresh faces were hardly suprising - apart from a shock that a very hard working and credible candidate who served last year, Jonathon Ash-Edwards failed to secure enough votes to serve us again. In recent years it has been obvious that CF nationally has failed to capitalise on the potential that exists. Turnout was about double compared to last year (still only a mere 700) and the count was closer than expected.
As North Wales Area Chairman and Aberystwyth Branch Chairman for CF I backed Mark Clarke because he stood out from the crowd, he was willing to take an interest in Wales, Welsh politics and the differences we have with our English counterparts. Differences in membership, resources, finance and an established area structure. He could see there was a point in doing more than the odd journey up the M4 corridor and meeting face to face rather than by messenger or video-conferencing. I feel it is that people dont vote in CF elections because they don't know who the candidates are and they barely influence the average member . Have branches become to localised and isolated? Branches should be more open. Are they failing to realise what influence their members can make nationally?
Conservative Future can only benefit from Mark Clarke's approach, setting up branches in target seats is a key for the assembly and parliamentary elections. Myself and other area chairmen backed Mark as we feel that the party as a whole should benefit from CF and not the individual.
In the coming months we must unite rather than divide to ensure that suitable candidates can fill the vacant area chair positions across the country so that we can become a coherent movement we can be proud of. Competence and hard work is essential over the coming year and I believe under the new leadership and our new image we can succeed to assembly success in May.
Liberal Democrat Conference
The third party of British politics is holding its annual conference in Brighton. Sir Menzies Campbell has tried to prove himself a capable leader (so incidently has Charles Kennedy) and has today won a crucial vote over whether or not the rich should be tortured or merely severely punished (the infamous 50p rate has been scrapped). But the headline issues are not the most interesting.
The problem with the liberal democrats has always been that they can never decide what they truly stand for. They are in a complete muddle over ideology, with the party split between liberal and social democrat leanings. Just take the conference slogan:
[picture taken from Oxford Liberal]
Well, which one is it? Either you trust in people, or you will rely on government power to coerce them in order to achieve 'fairness'. Either government should get smaller or bigger. These two goals are simply incompatible. It surely cannot be difficult to see that the current approach, which is to use the nanny state, but only to achieve liberal ends, is profoundly iliberal in itself.
The truth is that a profoundly liberal choice would be a severe threat to Labour and Tories at the next election. Nick Clegg's idea for a Great Repeal Act is truly wonderful (I'm so incredably jealous we didn't think of this first) What they now need are proper liberal economic policies alongside this. Then there is no reason they cannot truly be a force in British politics
Alas, until they sort themselves out - which will probably have to involve a bloodbath at some point - the party will eternally condemn themselves to be the "protest party" and nothing more
The problem with the liberal democrats has always been that they can never decide what they truly stand for. They are in a complete muddle over ideology, with the party split between liberal and social democrat leanings. Just take the conference slogan:
[picture taken from Oxford Liberal]
Well, which one is it? Either you trust in people, or you will rely on government power to coerce them in order to achieve 'fairness'. Either government should get smaller or bigger. These two goals are simply incompatible. It surely cannot be difficult to see that the current approach, which is to use the nanny state, but only to achieve liberal ends, is profoundly iliberal in itself.
The truth is that a profoundly liberal choice would be a severe threat to Labour and Tories at the next election. Nick Clegg's idea for a Great Repeal Act is truly wonderful (I'm so incredably jealous we didn't think of this first) What they now need are proper liberal economic policies alongside this. Then there is no reason they cannot truly be a force in British politics
Alas, until they sort themselves out - which will probably have to involve a bloodbath at some point - the party will eternally condemn themselves to be the "protest party" and nothing more
Friday, September 15, 2006
have just been to aushwitz 1. thought it important to see what happens when totalitarian bigots win.
the conservative party has a choice, back david camerons reforms and go after moderate labour lib dem opinion or do what it has done for the past few years and chase the ukip vote 9who lets face it we'd include in a coalition anyway0
the conservative party has a choice, back david camerons reforms and go after moderate labour lib dem opinion or do what it has done for the past few years and chase the ukip vote 9who lets face it we'd include in a coalition anyway0
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Goodbye Tony
After last week's near civil war in the Labour party, the prime minister announced he would indeed resign within the year. This will be taken as good news by conservatrives, but as it seems in more ways than one.
While watching the highlights of his speech to his last TUC conference, it was easy to see just how much of an asset Blair has been to the socialist movement. The moonbat nutcases within his own party that are forcing him out have somehow been deluded by 10 years of power into thinking that they would have had but a single day without him. The spin, re-wording and populist-emphasis Blair and New Labour brought to the table made them acceptable for government as they disguised their true beliefs. If heir apparent Gordon Brown betrays not just Blair but Blairism, he will potentially loose his party the next election
The Labour party owes Tony Blair everything, and now they stab him in the back. I have to say, simply as a human being, "what an awful shame". But then, perhaps... that's politics
While watching the highlights of his speech to his last TUC conference, it was easy to see just how much of an asset Blair has been to the socialist movement. The moonbat nutcases within his own party that are forcing him out have somehow been deluded by 10 years of power into thinking that they would have had but a single day without him. The spin, re-wording and populist-emphasis Blair and New Labour brought to the table made them acceptable for government as they disguised their true beliefs. If heir apparent Gordon Brown betrays not just Blair but Blairism, he will potentially loose his party the next election
The Labour party owes Tony Blair everything, and now they stab him in the back. I have to say, simply as a human being, "what an awful shame". But then, perhaps... that's politics
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
"Tax Cuts Dismissed"
The Times reports:
I avoid comment, in the hope that my fellow party members still have some distant recollection of why they are conservatives
Oliver Letwin, the Conservative policy chief, dismissed calls from those within his own party for an emphasis on cuts in taxes cuts by declaring: “We need an unambiguous commitment to growth in public services.” The report, which was chaired by former chief schools inspector Baroness Perry and former health secretary Stephen Dorrell, called the party to reject the principle of “public bad, private good”, and to have a new partnership with the professions.
I avoid comment, in the hope that my fellow party members still have some distant recollection of why they are conservatives
