Friday, September 22, 2006
Pinky and the Brain Part III
Ok the non prediction of the presentation by Dr Richard Wyn JOnes (Pinky) and Dr Scully (brain) was a bad but not dreadful night for Labour this May with 25 seats, Plaid at 13, Tories at 13, Independents at 2 and the Lib DEms with the rest.
Which in my view is based on a premise of a low turnout rather than Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems or Plaid or the Tories (depending on the seat). For Labour to think that Middle Britain voters are just in England is a massive mistake.
Further Peoples Voice may stand in more Valleys seats (resources permitting), might they do a deal with Plaid and co-ordinate where they are standing, targetting to deliver a 1999 style defeat where lets face it we don't stand a cat in hells chance
Also there is the factor that UKIP may stand in and Target South Wales East and Mid and West Wales given the desire to get abolitionist votes (which may or may not include BNP sympathisers in Mid Wales who may vote tactically).
Plus there is the English vote in Monmothshire which if the English Democrats candidate for a referenda as to its status gets off the ground, may eat into David Davies majority, esp as he is a two jobs kind of guy at the moment which the other parties may exploit. Might UKIP and the Eng Dem candidate do a deal there?
Then there is the rule that assembly members can't stand on the list and a constituency. It means that a local oligarch (or one who the local oligarchs who use the coal fortunes to manipulate elections, or the UofWales with its reserve fundsa nd grants from the monarchy) can't pick up their votes in a second or third place in their back yard so to speak, and pool it with their mates in other parts of the region to get elected.What I'll christen the Francis effect. The removal of this means that constituency activists and party machines come back into play and that can favour the Labour Party if they revert to their usual tactics for running elections . This shows once again Peter Hain fixing the rules as part of the 2006 act in Labours favour to offer himself as the best Deputy to Gordon Brown
In this scenario is it no wonder that the IWP is seeking to protect its research grants, lol. Or is this part of the plan to put Pinky up as VC at a future date?
Which in my view is based on a premise of a low turnout rather than Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems or Plaid or the Tories (depending on the seat). For Labour to think that Middle Britain voters are just in England is a massive mistake.
Further Peoples Voice may stand in more Valleys seats (resources permitting), might they do a deal with Plaid and co-ordinate where they are standing, targetting to deliver a 1999 style defeat where lets face it we don't stand a cat in hells chance
Also there is the factor that UKIP may stand in and Target South Wales East and Mid and West Wales given the desire to get abolitionist votes (which may or may not include BNP sympathisers in Mid Wales who may vote tactically).
Plus there is the English vote in Monmothshire which if the English Democrats candidate for a referenda as to its status gets off the ground, may eat into David Davies majority, esp as he is a two jobs kind of guy at the moment which the other parties may exploit. Might UKIP and the Eng Dem candidate do a deal there?
Then there is the rule that assembly members can't stand on the list and a constituency. It means that a local oligarch (or one who the local oligarchs who use the coal fortunes to manipulate elections, or the UofWales with its reserve fundsa nd grants from the monarchy) can't pick up their votes in a second or third place in their back yard so to speak, and pool it with their mates in other parts of the region to get elected.What I'll christen the Francis effect. The removal of this means that constituency activists and party machines come back into play and that can favour the Labour Party if they revert to their usual tactics for running elections . This shows once again Peter Hain fixing the rules as part of the 2006 act in Labours favour to offer himself as the best Deputy to Gordon Brown
In this scenario is it no wonder that the IWP is seeking to protect its research grants, lol. Or is this part of the plan to put Pinky up as VC at a future date?
# posted by James @ 11:08 am 
