Sunday, February 04, 2007
Boundary changes benefit Tories
New parliamentary boundaries, if approved, will see the Tories gain 12 seats and Labour lose 7 (based on nominal results). The total number of Welsh Westminster representation will be unaffected.
Even with the new boundaries, the Tories still have a mountain to climb to win the next election:
It sounds like good news for the Tory leader, but he still has a mountain to climb if he is to enter Number 10 with an overall majority. The research suggests that his party needs a swing of 6.9%, down from 7.4% on the current boundaries, to re-take power.
But, this is a larger swing than the Conservatives have managed since the war; Margaret Thatcher's famous victory in 1979 was achieved with a swing of 5.3%.
While this may seem difficult, considering the Tories continue to enjoy a lead in the opinion polls, might the smart money now be on a hung parliament?
# posted by Chris Hughes @ 3:09 pm 
